Goldman Sachs Like Being Long FFZ0

Goldman Sachs note that their "baseline expectations for a nearly $700bn reserve increase from the end of September to year-end and a $150bn bill paydown across Q4 imply a decline in the EFFR-IOER spread to -5 to -6bp from -1bp currently (with the bulk of this attributable to the decline in reserves), though there may be some stickiness that attenuates the move lower in fed funds. There is admittedly plenty of uncertainty around the reserve outlook related to eventual TGA levels, but even in the event of an unchanged cash balance, Fed balance sheet expansion alone would still be sufficient to imply incrementally more tightening than the market currently implies. We recommend buying the Dec-20 Fed funds contract."