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Goldman Sachs Looking For Discussion Over Terminal Rate

CHILE
  • Goldman Sachs view risks to the 10.75% terminal rate as skewed to the upside and believe the MPC will not hesitate to drive rates further up should incoming data warrant a more forceful action.
  • Although the value of the MPC minutes was diluted by the detailed IPoM discussion of the outlook for monetary policy, the Sep MPC decision marked the first split vote so far this hiking cycle. Therefore, we will be looking in the minutes for a discussion among directors on the terminal level to which they anticipate/favor taking the monetary policy rate.
  • They will also look for a potential discussion on why the central bank anticipates inflation to significantly moderate in 2023 as well as the importance that Board members assigned to the slowdown of economic activity (output gap closing by the end of 2022 and turning slightly negative through 2024) and its effect on inflation dynamics.
  • Lastly, Goldman Sachs presume directors also had a conversation on the FX intervention program as the post-meeting statement showed that the MPC judged that disruptions in the FX market had eased since the program's announcement. Therefore, GS will look for an assessment of the intervention program by MPC Directors.
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