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Goldman Sachs Note Domestic Risks Prompt COP Risk Premium Spike

COLOMBIA
  • Despite the strong performance for the Colombia Peso today following the below-estimate inflation data over the weekend, Goldman Sachs note that domestic risks in Colombia have taken their estimate of COP risk premium to the largest level in LatAm and have led to a volatile trading pattern over the last month.
  • Over the last week, three departures from President Petro’s cabinet have extended investor concerns around political outcomes, with uncertainty to remain elevated as additional policy reforms are expected to be submitted in the next couple of months (including a pension reform that GS economists think could strain government funding).
  • GS believe the real upside for COP is instead in the prospect that oil “joins in” the global cyclical re-rating.

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