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Goldman Sachs Now See July Rate Cut Following June IPoM

CHILE
  • In Goldman Sachs’ assessment, the June Monetary Policy Report (IPoM) conveys dovish policy signals, in line with yesterday’s post-MPC meeting policy statement.
  • GS now believe the central bank is likely to start its cutting cycle at the July 28 meeting (previously expected September). They recognize that the policy stance is very restrictive, with the real ex-ante policy rate at close to 7.0%, granting the MPC room to lower its nominal policy rate while still upholding a restrictive policy stance.
  • In their view, however, persistent core inflation (services in particular), sticky global inflation, and high cost pressures (e.g., very high nominal wage growth) will most likely render the convergence of inflation towards the 3% target slower than the central bank anticipates. This could ultimately keep the policy rate above neutral for a longer time than the central bank anticipates in their central scenario.
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