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Goldman Sachs On CPI/Monetary Policy

BRAZIL
  • The impact of declining fuel prices and lower-than-expected prints in food consumption was more than offset by the significantly higher-than-expected print in industrial goods (1.19% vs. 0.11% in Nov) and higher prints in several CPI groups whose prices normalized following the Nov Black Friday price discounts/promotions
  • All in, the underlying inflation dynamics are still challenging given still disseminated pressures on core and services inflation against a backdrop of a tightening labor market, the expectation of a deterioration of the macro and micro policy mix and a sizeable fiscal expansion in 2023 (possibly even beyond 2023) and renewed upward drift of 2023-24 inflation expectations.
  • Furthermore, inflation may prove inertial/sticky given intensifying backward looking price and wage setting mechanisms (with resetting wage contracts incorporating cost-of-living adjustments).
  • In Goldman Sach’s assessment, the challenging current conditions warrant a conservative calibration of monetary policy for a reasonable period of time.
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