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Goldman Sachs on NBH Following CPI Print

HUNGARY
  • Today's print marks a considerable overshoot of the MNB's inflation forecast, and raises the possibility that the MNB could deviate from its currently guided 15bp per meeting pace of tightening, and deliver a larger 30bp at next week's MPC meeting.
  • Alternatively, it could maintain the guided pace of tightening, but signal more strongly intentions to proceed with its hiking cycle in the coming quarter ahead.
  • Notwithstanding the size of the next week's move, GS analysts have recently revised up their expectations for more tightening in Hungary, and now expect rates to reach +3.00% by early Q2.

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