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Goldman Sachs On Peru CPI & BCRP

PERU
  • Lima CPI clocked in at 0.29% m/m in February, below the Bloomberg consensus for 0.44%, but slightly above the Jan print. Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages, accounting for ≈50% of the monthly variation, extended a four-month streak as the main driver of headline inflation, although it is softening at the margin.
  • Annual headline inflation remained virtually flat at 8.6%, below the 8.8% peak in June 2022. Overall, although peaking in June 2022, headline inflation remains inertial on its way down, and core and services inflation pressures remain intense.
  • This, further tightening of global monetary conditions, and the highly unsettled domestic political backdrop are expected to prompt the central bank to maintain a conservative stance after the February Monetary Policy Committee hold.
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