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Goldman Sachs On The Upcoming Banxico Minutes

MEXICO
  • Goldman Sachs expect the minutes to show all directors still concerned with inflation, particular core (services in particular) but to note the resilience of the domestic economy amidst a complex external environment and the underlying labor market strength.
  • They also expect the MPC directors to underscore that the policy rate is now well in restrictive territory (i.e., above the upper limit of the estimated range of nominal policy neutrality) and that the end of the rate hiking cycle is now very near (favorable inflation data could even lead the MPC to be on hold at the next meeting).
  • In the minutes GS will specifically be looking for:
    • Discussion about how restrictive monetary policy should be given the inflation and growth outlook, and end-cycle terminal rate.
    • Discussion about the proper policy stance once the hiking cycle ends: i.e., how restrictive should policy be on an ex-ante real and for how long.
    • Discussion about the implications for domestic monetary policy of the recent decline is US Dollar yields, soft US real activity data, and FOMC expected fed funds path and policy signals.

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