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Goldman Sachs Still Expect Q2 Expansion Despite Weak May Data

PERU
  • Despite the negative May print, Goldman Sachs expect activity to have expanded in Q2 on the back of the normalization of mobility, the stabilization of the mining sector following disruptions to production and shipment in the southern regions, and the reversal of disruptions to food supply in the northern and central regions after heavy rainfalls in March. Nevertheless, tight external and domestic financial conditions, high inflation, depressed business sentiment, and heightened domestic policy and political uncertainty will continue to bear on economic activity, especially on private investment.
  • As a reminder, last Week GS maintained their view that a BCRP policy pivot is on the way should incoming data further validate the central bank's view that inflation is firmly set on a decisive downwards trajectory. At the August meeting GS expect either a cautious 25bp cut—especially if food supply disruptions continue to dissipate, inflation evolves favourably, and the FX backdrop remains supportive—or a more explicit cue of a probable cut for the September meeting.
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