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Goldman: Softer AHE On Negative Calendar Effects

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Goldman see NFP growth at a seasonally adjusted 175k in May. Job growth tends to slow in May when the labor market is tight, and Big Data also indicate a deceleration. We also assume a roughly 25k drag from reduced credit availability, for example in the leisure and hospitality and other services industries.
  • One offsetting positive factor is that the May seasonal factors have evolved favorably in recent years.
  • Elsewhere they see the u/e rate unchanged at 3.4%, reflecting a modest rise in household employment and unchanged labor force participation (at 62.6%).
  • AHE seen at 0.25% M/M sa after +0.5%, lowering the year-on-year rate to 4.3%, reflecting negative calendar effects and waning upward wage pressures.

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