Goldman stands alone among.........>

EMERGING MARKETS: Goldman stands alone among Turkey watchers, calling for a

150bps hike by the Turkish central bank at its meeting today (1200BST).

- Consensus is for policy rate (24% currently) to fall to 20% by year-end.

- From GS note: "We continue to think that the TRY has essentially been under

pressure from onshore dollarisation trends rather than offshore flows."

- "the recent volatility in offshore rates will translate into tighter onshore

financial conditions and ultimately lead to rising deposit rates even if the

policy rate remain on hold."

- "given the pressure on the currency and the low level of FX reserves, we think

the TCMB will need to speed up that process by raising its policy rate. Banks

have argued previously that they cut their deposit rates by 300-400bp since

October to well below the policy rate in anticipation of cuts by the TCMB and

the TCMB needs to raise its rate to reverse those expectations."