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Goldman Ups ECB Hiking View, 50bp Moves In Sep and Oct

ECB

Goldman ups its hiking forecast for the ECB following today's meeting. Following the expected 25bp increase in July, they now see 50bp hikes in Sep and Oct.

  • After that, rate hikes will slow to 25bp raises, to a terminal rate of 1.75% in June 2023.
  • Prior to the ECB meeting, Goldman's baseline scenario was 25bp hikes at back-to-back meetings until reaching 1.50% in June next year, slightly above their 1.25% estimate for the equilibrium policy rate.

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