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Goolsbee - Careful Extrapolating Today's Core PCE Acceleration

FED
Paraphrasing Chicago Fed's Goolsbee ('25 voter) in a monetary policy discussion:
  • We’ve got a really substantial drop in inflation. Even with the PCE data that came out this morning, which showed a month of rebound, you want to be careful extrapolating this little part [pointing to the rise in the six-month annualized rate from 1.9 to 2.5% ar], the main thing to see is that we had very substantial progress over a long-term basis.
  • If you have floating around in your mind a kind of Phillips Curve, the thing that makes 2023 quite different, it has among the biggest drops in inflation on an annual basis in the history of the Fed with unemployment below the natural rate.

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