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Governing United Right Maintain Wide Lead In First Poll Of 2022

POLAND

The governing United Right (ZP) coalition maintains a wide lead in the first opinion poll of 2022, extending its advantage over the centre-right Civic Coalition (KO).

  • Social Changes poll: ZP: 38% (+2), KO: 24% (-1), Poland2050: 13%, Confederation: 12% (+1), Left: 7% (-1), Polish People's Party: 2% (-1), Kukiz'15: 2%, Agreement: 1% (-1). +/- vs. 17-20 Dec '21. Fieldwork: 31 Dec 2021 – 2 Jan 2022. Sample size: 1,069
  • While Poland is not due to hold legislative elections until November 2023 at the latest, the right-wing gov't of PM Mateusz Morawiecki currently sits as a minority administration in the Sejm (parliament) and relies on a confidence and supply agreement with a small number of deputies to maintain a majority.
  • Given Poland's polarised political environment, these deputies could withdraw their support for the gov't in 2022, risking a snap general election.
  • Should current polling reflect the final result, it would likely see the United Right (dominated by the Law and Justice Party) fail to win a majority, but comfortably remain the largest party in parliament.

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