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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
POLAND
- Poland experienced a tenfold increase in deficit 2020, from 0.7% (in 2019) to 7% (revised slightly higher from 6.9% in preliminary estimates earlier this month), increasing the government debt to 57.5% (from 45.6%), according to stats office GUS.
- As a reminder, with the 10Y yield trading at 1.56%, Poland currently offers the lowest real yield among the EM world, -1.64% (adjusted by CPI) and -2.34% (adjusted by core CPI).
- Hence, with inflationary pressures to continue to increase in the short term (before easing down in the second half of this year), real yields in Poland are expected to fall even further. MPC member Lukasz Hardt told a webinar on Tuesday that CPI inflation is 'very likely' to hit 4% YoY in April, diverging significantly from the NBP 3.5% upper tolerance band (see chart below). Next preliminary CPI print expected to come out on April 30.
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
- Poland 10Y yield has been trending higher in the past week, currently trading slightly below its ST key resistance at 1.60%. On the downside, first support stands at 1.50% (50D SMA), followed by 1.40%.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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