MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Equity Downleg Looks Corrective
Price Signal Summary – Leg Lower in Equities Looks Corrective
- The latest move lower in the S&P E-Minis contract appears corrective. Medium-term trend signals such as moving average studies, continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA. The next key support to monitor is 5830.35, the 50-day EMA. Despite recent gains, a bearish condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact. The move lower last week marked a resumption of the downtrend that started Sep 30. Price has breached 4746.94, 61.8% of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle.
- Short-term gains in EURUSD are considered corrective - for now - and the trend direction remains down. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. The latest recovery in EURGBP strengthens a potential reversal signal on Nov 12 - a bullish engulfing candle pattern. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this exposes the next key resistance at 0.8366, the 50-day EMA (pierced). A bear cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and the move down last week reinforces current conditions. Price is also trading just above recent lows. Support at 0.6513, the Nov 6 low, has been cleared and price is through 0.6490, the 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg.
- The long-term trend condition in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest move down is considered corrective. The bear phase has resulted in a breach of the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and the metal is trading closer to its recent lows. A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the move lower from the Nov 7 high has reinforced current conditions. Attention is on $65.74, the Oct 1 low, and $63.90, the Sep 10 low and key support.
- Bund futures are in consolation mode and the contract is trading below its recent highs. Short-term gains are - for now - considered corrective. The trend direction is down and the Nov 6 break to a fresh cycle low reinforces this theme. The trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish and the latest shallow recovery is considered corrective. The contract has recently breached 92.99, a 2.00 projection of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 1.0997 High Oct 8
- RES 3: 1.0937 High Nov 5 and key short-term resistance
- RES 2: 1.0728 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0607/0683 High Nov 18 / Low Nov 6
- PRICE: 1.0586 @ 05:46 GMT Nov 19
- SUP 1: 1.0484 1.00 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 2: 1.0448 Low Sep 3 2023 and a key support
- SUP 3: 1.0377 1.236 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.0311 1.382 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
Short-term gains in EURUSD are considered corrective - for now - and the trend direction remains down. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 1.0484 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.0728, the 20-day EMA. Note that the trend is oversold, however, a clear reversal signal is still required to highlight a short-term base.
GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 1.3175 High Oct 4
- RES 3: 1.3048 High Nov 6 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.2861/2964 20- and 50-day EMA values
- RES 1: 1.2768 High Nov 13
- PRICE: 1.2670 @ 06:00 GMT Nov 19
- SUP 1: 1.2597 Low Nov 15
- SUP 2: 1.2568 76.4% retracement of the Apr 22 - Sep 26 bull cycle
- SUP 3. 1.2510 Low May 14
- SUP 4: 1.2446 Low Sep 9
The trend condition in GBPUSD is unchanged and the needle continues to point south. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a clear downtrend. Support at 1.2665, the Aug 8 low, has recently been cleared, paving the way for a move towards 1.2568, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is at 1.2861 the 20-day EMA. A short-term bounce would be considered corrective.
EURGBP TECHS: Testing Resistance At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 0.8464 High Sep 11 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 0.8448 High Oct 31 and reversal trigger
- RES 2: 0.8404 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 11 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.8366/73 50-day EMA / High Nov 18
- PRICE: 0.8355 @ 06:27 GMT Nov 19
- SUP 1: 0.8307/8260 Low Nov 14 / 11 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 ‘22
- SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
- SUP 4: 0.8200 Round number support
The latest recovery in EURGBP strengthens a potential reversal signal on Nov 12 - a bullish engulfing candle pattern. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this exposes the next key resistance at 0.8366, the 50-day EMA (pierced). A clear break of the average would open 0.8404, a Fibonacci retracement. For bears a reversal lower would refocus attention on key support at 0.8260, Nov 11 low. A break of it resumes the downtrend.
USDJPY TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 158.68 2.50 proj of the Sep 16 - 27 - 30 price swing
- RES 3: 157.86 High Jul 19
- RES 2: 156.88 2.236 proj of the Sep 16 - 27 - 30 price swing
- RES 1: 156.75 High Nov 15
- PRICE: 154.53 @ 06:38 GMT Nov 19
- SUP 1: 153.05 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 150.79 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 149.09 Low Oct 21
- SUP 4: 147.35 Low Oct 8
The USDJPY trend condition remains bullish and last Friday’s pullback appears corrective. Last week’s gains confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Sep 16 and the move higher maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 156.88 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is 153.05, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of this EMA would signal the start of a corrective phase.
EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 169.20 High Jul 24
- RES 3: 168.01 High Jul 26
- RES 2: 167.40 61.8% retracement of the Nov 11 - Aug 5 bear leg
- RES 1: 165.04/166.69 High Nov 15 / High Oct 31 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 163.63 @ 06:50 GMT Nov 19
- SUP 1: 162.27 Low Nov 18
- SUP 2: 161.85/161.01 Low Oct 17 / Low Oct 4
- SUP 3: 158.11 Low Sep 30
- SUP 4: 157.05/155.15 Low Sep 18 / 16
EURJPY is trading closer to its recent lows and a short-term bear cycle remains in play. The cross has breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This exposes the next firm support at 161.85, the Oct 17 low. Trend signals remain bullish and attention is on the bull trigger at 166.69, the Oct 31 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Initial resistance is at 165.04, the Nov 15 high.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 0.6762 High Oct 9
- RES 3: 0.6733 High Oct 13
- RES 2: 0.6642/88 50-day EMA / High Nov 7 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 0.6575 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6513 @ 07:54 GMT Nov 19
- SUP 1: 0.6441 Low Nov 14
- SUP 2: 0.6400 Round number support
- SUP 3: 0.6350 Low Aug 5 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6339 Low Nov 10 2023
A bear cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and the latest recovery appears corrective. The pair is still trading closer to its recent lows. Support at 0.6513, the Nov 6 low, has been cleared and price is through 0.6490, the 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg. This opens 0.6350, the Aug 5 low and the next key support. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6575, the 20-day EMA. The reversal trigger is at 0.6688, the Nov 7 high.
USDCAD TECHS: MA Studies Highlight A Dominant Uptrend
- RES 4: 1.4236 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4140 1.500 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4137 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
- RES 1: 1.4106 High Nov 15
- PRICE: 1.4015 @ 08:04 GMT Nov 19
- SUP 1: 1.3959 High Nov 1 / 6
- SUP 2: 1.3920/3822 20-day EMA and a key S/T support / Low Nov 6
- SUP 3: 1.3805 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.3747 Low Oct 17
The trend outlook in USDCAD remains bullish and last week’s gains reinforce the bullish condition. The pair has cleared a number of resistance points. Note too that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode condition, highlighting a dominant uptrend. 1.4140 marks the next upside level, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3920, the 20-day EMA. A short-term pullback would be considered corrective.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (Z4) Trading Below Its Recent Highs
- RES 4: 134.25 High Oct 16
- RES 3: 133.54 High Oct 24 and key resistance
- RES 2: 132.91 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 132.34/74 20-day EMA / High Nov 12
- PRICE: 132.18 @ 05:22 GMT Nov 19
- SUP 1: 131.28/130.58 Low Nov 14 / 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2 129.99 1.236 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 -16 price swing
- SUP 3: 129.48 1.382 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 -16 price swing
- SUP 4: 129.08 1.500 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 -16 price swing
Bund futures are in consolation mode and the contract is trading below its recent highs. Short-term gains are - for now - considered corrective. The trend direction is down and the Nov 6 break to a fresh cycle low reinforces this theme. The 131.00 handle has been cleared, opening 129.99, a Fibonacci projection. Initial key resistance is 132.34, the 20-day EMA (pierced). A clear break of it would be seen as an early bullish development.
BOBL TECHS: (Z4) Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact
- RES 4: 119.620 High Oct 18
- RES 3: 119.330 High Oct 24
- RES 2: 118.876 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 118.830 High Nov 12
- PRICE: 118.530 @ 05:39 GMT Nov 19
- SUP 1: 118.150/680 Low Nov 14 / Low Oct 31 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 117.570 2.00 proj of the Oct 18 - 22 - 24
- SUP 3: 117.362 2.236 proj of the Oct 18 - 22 - 24
- SUP 4: 117.234 2.382 proj of the Oct 18 - 22 - 24
Recent gains in Bobl futures appear to be a correction. A sharp sell-off on Oct 30 reinforced a bearish condition and the move down confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle that started Oct 1. The sell-off opens 117.570, a Fibonacci extension point. Resistance at the 20-day EMA has been breached and resistance to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at 118.876. A clear breach of this EMA would alter the picture.
SCHATZ TECHS: (Z4) Testing Trendline Resistance
- RES 4: 107.110 High Oct 4
- RES 3: 107.070 High Oct 24 and the near-term bull trigger
- RES 2: 106.945 High Oct 29
- RES 1: 106.880 High Nov 14
- PRICE: 106.725 @ 05:47 GMT Nov 19
- SUP 1: 106.645 Low Nov 8
- SUP 2: 106.485/375 Low Nov 5 / Low Oct 31 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 106.315 1.000 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 - 24 price swing
- SUP 4: 106.137 1.1236 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 - 24 price swing
Despite the current bull cycle in Schatz futures, a bearish trend condition remains intact and gains are considered corrective. The trend is oversold and the latest move higher is allowing this condition to unwind. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 106.375, the Oct 31 low and bear trigger. The trendline at 106.789, drawn from the Oct 1 high, has been pierced. A clear break of it would expose 106.945, the Oct 29 high.
GILT TECHS: (Z4) Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 96.65 High Oct 30
- RES 3: 95.83 Low Oct 10
- RES 2: 95.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 94.55/73 20-day EMA / High Nov 1
- PRICE: 93.74 @ Close Nov 18
- SUP 1: 92.97/53 Low Nov 14 / 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 92.23 2.236 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
- SUP 3: 92.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 91.75 2.3821 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
The trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish and the latest shallow recovery is considered corrective. The contract has recently breached 92.99, a 2.00 projection of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing. This signals scope for an extension towards 92.23, the 2.236 projection. The Oct 30 high of 96.65, is seen as a key short-term resistance where a break is required to highlight a reversal. Initial firm resistance to watch is 94.73, Nov 1 high.
BTP TECHS: (Z4) Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: 122.62 High Oct 1 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 121.50 76.4% retracement of the Oct 1 - Nov 7 bear leg
- RES 2: 120.81 61.8% retracement of the Oct 1 - Nov 7 bear leg
- RES 1: 120.69 High Nov 15
- PRICE: 120.23 @ Close Nov 18
- SUP 1: 119.12/117.88 Low Nov 13 / 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 117.70 61.8% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 117.34 Low Jul 26
- SUP 4: 116.54 76.4% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
BTP futures traded higher last week. Despite the latest bounce, the contract maintains a bearish tone. A resumption of the downtrend would refocus attention on 117.70, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial support to watch is 119.12, the Nov 13 low. 120.14, the 50-day EMA, has been pierced, a clear break of the average would cancel the bearish threat. This would open 121.50, a Fibonacci retracement point.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z4) Corrective Bounce
- RES 4: 5015.00 High Oct 21
- RES 3: 5106.00 High Sep 30 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 4961.00 High Nov 6 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 4857.19 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 4812.00 @ 06:16 GMT Nov 19
- SUP 1: 4706.00 Low Nov 13
- SUP 2: 4707.00 Low Aug 9
- SUP 3: 4662.12 .76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 4586.00 Low Aug 6
Despite recent gains, a bearish condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact. The move lower last week marked a resumption of the downtrend that started Sep 30. Price has breached 4746.94, 61.8% of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle. This exposes 4662.12, the 76.4% retracement point. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 4961.00, Nov 6 high, where a break would highlight a reversal. First resistance is at 4857.19, the 20-day EMA.
E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Corrective Cycle Exposes The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 6145.26 1.236 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 6103.88 1.500 projection of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing
- RES 2: 6070.16 1.382 projection of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing
- RES 1: 5974.25/6053.25 High Nov 15 / 11 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 5926.25 @ 07:21 GMT Nov 19
- SUP 1: 5876.75 Low Nov 15
- SUP 2: 5826.69 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 5724.25 Low Nov 4 and a key support
- SUP 4: 5675.25 Low Sep 18
The latest move lower in the S&P E-Minis contract appears corrective. Medium-term trend signals such as moving average studies, continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA. The next key support to monitor is 5830.35, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 6053.25, Nov 11 high.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (F5) Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: $84.90 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance
- RES 3: $82.40 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $80.55/91 - High Oct 7 / 76.4% of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- RES 1: $76.24 - High Nov 5
- PRICE: $73.32 @ 07:02 GMT Nov 19
- SUP 1: $70.28 - Low Oct 29
- SUP 2: $69.68/68.01 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $66.38 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $63.90 - 2.000 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
Short-term conditions in Brent futures remain bearish. Resistance is intact and recent gains appear to have been a correction. The extension down exposes support at $69.68, Oct 1 low, and $68.01, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a clear reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance at $80.55, the Oct 7 high. Clearance of this level would resume the recent uptrend. Initial firm resistance to watch is at $76.24, the Nov 5 high.
WTI TECHS: (F5) Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: $80.25 - High Jul 5
- RES 3: $78.03 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $74.83/77.04 - High Oct 10 / 8 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $72.41 - High Nov 7
- PRICE: $69.04 @ 07:11 GMT Nov 19
- SUP 1: $66.32 - Low Oct 29
- SUP 2: $65.74/63.90 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $62.73 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number
A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the move lower from the Nov 7 high has reinforced current conditions. Attention is on $65.74, the Oct 1 low, and $63.90, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a clear reversal to the upside would instead refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $77.04, the Oct 8 high. Clearance of this level would resume the recent uptrend. Initial firm resistance is $72.41, the Nov 7 high.
GOLD TECHS: Short-Term Bearish Phase Remains Intact
- RES 4: $2790.1 - High Oct 31 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $2710.4/2750.0 - High Nov 11 / 5
- RES 2: $2653.3 - 20-day EMA
- RES 1: $2634.7 - 50-day EMA
- PRICE: $2618.6 @ 07:25 GMT Nov 19
- SUP 1: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14
- SUP 2: $2511.1 - Low Sep 12
- SUP 3: $2472.0 - Low Sep 4
- SUP 4: $2415.9 - 38.2% retracement of the Oct 6 ‘23 - Oct 31 bull leg
The long-term trend condition in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest move down is considered corrective. The bear phase has resulted in a breach of the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and the metal is trading closer to its recent lows. The breach of the EMAs signals scope for a deeper retracement and sights are on $2511.1 next, the Sep 18 low. Firm resistance is seen at $2653.3, the 20-day EMA.
SILVER TECHS: Corrective Phase
- RES 4: $35.226 - 61.8% of the 2011 - 2020 major bear leg
- RES 3: $35.167 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 2: $33.125/34.903 - High Nov 1 / High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $31.603 - 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 31.252 @ 08:09 GMT Nov 19
- SUP 1: $29.677 - Low Nov 14
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
Bullish conditions in Silver remain intact and the bear cycle that started on Oct 23 appears to be a correction - for now. However this corrective cycle remains in play and the metal is trading closer to its recent lows. Price has breached the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and traded through $30.739, a trendline support drawn from the Aug 8 low. This has exposed $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is $31.603, the 20-day EMA.