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Decent SONIA Action Tuesday

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  • Polish government proposed to raise the minimum wage to PLN 3,010 in 2022 (7.5% hike), up from PLN 2,800 this year, which is slightly above the 7.1% (PLN 3,000) initial proposal earlier this year.
  • This week, NBP member Hardt commented on Twitter that the overshooting inflation is not temporary and requires an MPC response (i.e. rate hike).
  • Three NBP members (Hardt, Gatnar and Zubelewicz) out of eight are currently in favor of a rate hike and strongly believe that the central bank should start to gradually normalize its policy to curb the inflationary pressures.
  • November meeting remains key for policy outlook. The outcome is still binary for now, with traders hesitant if the NBP will start its tightening cycle then, or at a later date.
  • Next important data to watch is core CPI coming out on September 16 (expected to accelerate to 3.9% in August).