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GREECE: Debt/GDP Ratio To Fall To 130% By End of 2028 - FinMin

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Greece's Finance Minister Hatzidakis has announced that the debt/GDP ratio will fall to "close to 130%” by the end of 2028, and to 152.7% at the end of this year.

  • The previous Government forecast had 2024 debt/GDP at 153.9%.
  • The debt/GDP ratio was 161.9% in 2023, falling from a peak of 207.0% in 2020.
  • This reduction has been driven by improvements in Greece's primary balance (which saw a 1.9% surplus in 2023) and strong nominal GDP growth.
  • Hatzidakis expects the primary surplus to rise to 2.4% in 2024, up from the previous forecast of 2.1%.
  • The improving fiscal backdrop has already been recognised by ratings agencies, with Moody's changing Greece's sovereign credit outlook to Positive from Stable two weeks ago.
  • As such, 10-year GGB/spreads to Bunds have seen minimal reaction to the latest headlines. However, the spread remains 2bps tighter today at 98bps, narrowing alongside peripheral peers.
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Greece's Finance Minister Hatzidakis has announced that the debt/GDP ratio will fall to "close to 130%” by the end of 2028, and to 152.7% at the end of this year.

  • The previous Government forecast had 2024 debt/GDP at 153.9%.
  • The debt/GDP ratio was 161.9% in 2023, falling from a peak of 207.0% in 2020.
  • This reduction has been driven by improvements in Greece's primary balance (which saw a 1.9% surplus in 2023) and strong nominal GDP growth.
  • Hatzidakis expects the primary surplus to rise to 2.4% in 2024, up from the previous forecast of 2.1%.
  • The improving fiscal backdrop has already been recognised by ratings agencies, with Moody's changing Greece's sovereign credit outlook to Positive from Stable two weeks ago.
  • As such, 10-year GGB/spreads to Bunds have seen minimal reaction to the latest headlines. However, the spread remains 2bps tighter today at 98bps, narrowing alongside peripheral peers.