MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 10

MNI BRIEF: China Nov Exports Slows, Imports Slide

MNI BRIEF: China Crude Oil Imports Accelerate In November

CHINA NOV EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +8.9% Y/Y: CUSTOMS

MNI: CHINA YTD EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY90.3 Bln via OMO Tuesday

MNI: GERMAN NOV CPI +2.2 % Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CORE CPI +0.1% M/M, +3% Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CPI +0.3% M/M, +2.4% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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Greenback Falters Further, Death Cross Forms in EUR/USD

FOREX
  • Greenback comfortably the poorest performer in G10 early Friday, helping tip EUR/USD back above 1.06 and extend the short-term corrective recovery. Markets have shown back above the Tuesday high of 1.0609, opening 1.0657 as the next upside level.
  • The fading USD has allowed the technically oversold condition in EUR/USD and GBP/USD to fully reverse - suggesting this USD dip could be corrective in nature at these levels. Yesterday's close secured a 'death cross' in EUR/USD (50-dma falling bellow 200-dma), the first since mid-2021, and shows near-term momentum clearly pointed lower in the pair. Worth recalling the majority of sell-side month-end FX rebalancing models all pointed to USD buying into the month-end fix, so markets may be wary heading into US hours of underlying USD demand.
  • Eurozone flash inflation came in below consensus expectations in September at an unrounded 4.344% Y/Y (vs. 5.2% prior; 4.5% cons). This was the lowest headline print since October 2021, but left little impact on the EUR, which remains staunchly mid-table. AUD, NZD and NOK are outperforming, while JPY and USD remain the poorest performers.
  • Data Friday includes August US trade balance numbers, personal income/spending and the latest PCE data. The MNI Chicago PMI is expected to deteriorate to 47.6 from 48.7 previously, just ahead of the final September University of Michigan sentiment release. Speakers include Fed's Williams, who rounds off the week talking on monetary policy.
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