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Greenback Firmer, But Fails to Fully Resume Uptrend

FOREX
  • The greenback recovered off a soft start on Friday as July PPI edged ahead of expectations, moving modestly against perceptions of a soft CPI print on the session prior. As such, the USD Index inched higher Friday before meeting resistance at 102.843 - a level that will need to be broken in order to cement progress toward the 103.418 200-dma.
  • GBP outperformed all others on Friday as the June GDP release pointed to a stronger-than-expected end to Q2. GBP/USD recovered off the week's lows of 1.2666 on the release, but has failed to recoup the sharp losses posted off the Thursday high at 1.2819. For now, bearish themes dominate, keeping 1.2621, the Aug 3 low and bear trigger in focus.
  • NOK and SEK made up the Friday session's poorest performers, as high beta currencies suffered alongside the pullback in stocks. A ~1% pullback in cash European indices worked against risk appetite, prompting EUR/NOK to show at new multi-week highs and break resistance at the 11.4643 50-dma. The move opens 11.539 - the 100-dma and next hurdle to closing the gap with the early July sell-off in the cross.
  • Focus in the coming week turns to the Norges Bank and RBNZ rate decisions. While the Norges Bank are expected to raise rates by 25bps, the RBNZ are seen keeping policy unchanged as inflation gradually falls back toward target. Chinese economic activity data also crosses as well as the latest Japanese and Canadian CPI prints.
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