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Greenback Off Highs, But Few Signs of Reversal in Muted Trade

FOREX
  • The greenback is moderately lower early Monday, reflecting the lack of any material escalation in tensions across the middle-east. Resultingly, haven currencies are offered and helping keep the likes of JPY and CHF well off recent highs. Both EUR/USD and GBP/USD are modestly correcting off last week's pullback lows, however there are few signs of any bullish breaks across the USD pairs at present.
  • As such, there's a wait-and-see feel across G10 markets, however more action is noted across CEE, as the PLN rallies on the back of a surprising likely victory for the pro-EU opposition in the weekend's leadership elections. EUR/PLN has corrected lower, erasing the entirety of the rally that followed the central bank's surprise 75bps cut two months ago.
  • SEK is benefiting from the calmer backdrop, rising against all others in G10, as US futures point to a positive open on Wall Street Monday. NZD is similarly firm, however NZD/USD remains well within range of the Friday lows at 0.5884 and below the 50-dma resistance of 0.5946.
  • Focus Monday turns to the US empire manufacturing data for October, due alongside speeches from Fed's Harker and ECB's de Cos. Looking later in the week, UK and New Zealand inflation releases as well as the continuation of US quarterly earnings season should keep markets busy.
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