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Greenback Recovers As Initial Fed Speak Leans Relatively Hawkish

FOREX
  • On Friday, the dollar index has recovered around 0.6% of its substantial losses this week. The first speaker since the FOMC meeting, Fed’s Williams, stated we aren’t really talking abut rate cuts right now and that it is premature to really be thinking about timing of monetary easing.
  • Greenback strength was broad based but has only put a small dent in the larger post-fed adjustment with the DXY sitting well over a percent below pre-FOMC levels. In particular, the Euro has been the main victim on Friday, with some weaker than expected PMIs for France, Germany and the EU all weighing throughout European trade.
  • EURUSD is down 0.85% and has spent the late session oscillating around the 1.09 mark. The EURUSD recovery this week is a bullish development and signals the end of the recent corrective pullback between Nov 29 - Dec 8. The continuation higher suggests scope for a test of key short-term resistance at 1.1017, the Nov 29 high and a bull trigger. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. Key support has been defined at 1.0724, the Dec 8 low.
  • At the other end of the G10 leaderboard, the Norwegian krone is the best performer with EURNOK down another 1.35%. The surprise rate hike and overall firmer price action for oil continues to support the NOK’s recovery.
  • Just German IFO on Monday’s docket before the focus turns to Tuesday’s Bank of Japan meeting and Canadian CPI.
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