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Greenback Reverses Losses To Consolidate Underlying Uptrend

FOREX
  • The USD regained ground in the second half of the session to lift off lows as Treasuries sold-off with a rare helping hand from higher inflation breakevens. The move saw the USD index reverse at one point a -0.4% decline for back near unchanged on the day, consolidating a strong climb over the week which has continued the medium-term uptrend posted off the mid-July lows. This keeps resistance in the USD Index at 105.157, a break above which resumes the uptrend to target 105.883, the early March highs.
  • Meanwhile, the JPY returned lower into the Friday close, wholly shrugging off this week's verbal intervention headlines from cabinet members Matsuno and Kanda. USD/JPY erased an overnight dip to recover close to 147.75 and narrow the gap with the bull trigger of 147.87.
  • CAD outperformed, gaining on the back of the solid August jobs release (which saw the unemployment rate dip, net change in employment top expectations and the wage rate top forecast) and further WTI gains. USD/CAD reversed further off the September high in response, making 1.3576 the next downside level of note. Clearance here opens 1.3553 for direction.
  • Focus in the coming week turns to US CPI and the ECB rate decision, at which markets remain on a knife edge, split between seeing no change in policy from the Governing Council, or a 25bps rate hike. Scandi CPIs also cross, providing the last look at inflation ahead of rate decisions from both the Norges Bank and Riksbank on September 21st.
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