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Greenback Sinks as NFP Falls Short of Heightened Expectations

FOREX
  • The June payrolls report disappointed those that had upped their expectations after a blowout ADP report just one day prior. Headline payrolls added 209k jobs across June, the lowest in over three years, and a solid revision lower for the May release also dampened the strength of the report.
  • While the unemployment rate fell, markets marked down the pricing of the Fed tightening cycle this year, There continues to be circa 21-22bp priced for the Jul 26 decision, with the cumulative +35bp of hikes to a terminal of 5.43% in November trimmed slightly. Cuts into 2024 widened on the day, building to 55bps to Jun'24 and 125bp to Dec'24.
  • This, allied with a pullback in the longer-end worked against the USD, which slipped against all others in G10.
  • The USD Index made a convicing break through the 50-dma, hitting the lowest levels since late June to narrow the gap with key support at the mid-June low of 101.921. The JPY was one of the primary beneficiaries, pressuring USD/JPY to erase the entirety of the rally posted since Jun23.
  • NOK performed well, rising against most others on the back of a bounce in risk as well as a rebound in the oil price. Moves in the NOK shrugged off near-term weakness evident in poor industrial production figures for May, turning focus to next week's CPI.
  • US inflation takes primacy in the coming week, with markets expecting M/M headline and core to be propped up to 0.3%, but for Y/Y to post another sequential slowdown to 3.1% and 5.0% for headline and core respectively.
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