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EM FX: Greenback Strength Weighs on EMFX, But Moves Relatively Contained for Now

EM FX
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The spike in the greenback following the US inflation data has unsurprisingly weighed on EM FX in the immediate aftermath of the release, with the higher-than-expected M/M core and supercore readings reflecting stronger pressures across all major sub-categories.

  • USD/CE3 pairs are between 0.3-0.4% higher at typing, completely reversing pre-data losses. Following outperformance earlier today, the Hungarian forint lags the rest of the EMEA FX basket at the margins, though both USDHUF and EURHUF remain below pre-Hungary CPI levels. Similarly, USDPLN and USDCZK remain below yesterday’s opening levels.
  • Despite weakness across the commodities space, gains for USDZAR are lagging that of the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Key short-term resistance remains some way off at 19.2296, the Jan 13 high.
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The spike in the greenback following the US inflation data has unsurprisingly weighed on EM FX in the immediate aftermath of the release, with the higher-than-expected M/M core and supercore readings reflecting stronger pressures across all major sub-categories.

  • USD/CE3 pairs are between 0.3-0.4% higher at typing, completely reversing pre-data losses. Following outperformance earlier today, the Hungarian forint lags the rest of the EMEA FX basket at the margins, though both USDHUF and EURHUF remain below pre-Hungary CPI levels. Similarly, USDPLN and USDCZK remain below yesterday’s opening levels.
  • Despite weakness across the commodities space, gains for USDZAR are lagging that of the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Key short-term resistance remains some way off at 19.2296, the Jan 13 high.