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Gross Wages Decelerated to 9.7% in December

HUNGARY
  • As expected, the NBH maintained its stance in yesterday’s meeting and hiked its 'core' policy rate by 50bps to 3.4%.
  • Next important decision will be on Thursday (Feb 24) and the NBH is expected to raise its 1W depo rate by 30bps to 4.60%.
  • We saw in January that the central bank decided to accelerate the pace of the tightening on its 'core' rate to speed up the convergence towards the 1W depo rate.
  • With the terminal rate on the 1W depo rate likely to reach nearly 5% by the end of March (two 30bps hikes priced in for February and March), the 'core' policy rate will converge towards the 1W depo rate by the end of May (three 50bps hikes for the next three meetings).
  • In its statement, the NBH reiterated that it will continue to hike rates until CPI stabilizes as inflation risks have strengthened in recent months.
  • This morning, economic data showed that gross wages decelerated to 9.7% YoY in December (vs. 10.5% exp.), down from 10.1% the previous month.
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