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GS Above Consensus For April CPI

CANADA
  • Goldman Sachs look for headline CPI inflation of 0.30% M/M (SA), largely reflecting higher energy prices. It yields a smaller than more broadly expected decline from 2.9% to 2.81% Y/Y (cons 2.7).
  • They see CPI ex food & energy unchanged at 0.27% M/M (SA) from their top-down approach, or 0.23% M/M bottom-up.
  • Of note, “we expect rent inflation to remain firm at +0.9% mom sa as existing rents continue to catch-up to average asking rents in an imbalanced housing market.”
  • They see two risks: “On one hand, the increase in the carbon tax that took effect on April 1st could affect non-energy items more than expected. That said, academic studies have generally found limited pass-through from carbon taxes to core items. On the other hand, a March Easter poses some downside risks to our April forecast if seasonal adjustments are excessive.”
  • They currently expect the BoC to cut 25bp in June with a quarterly pace thereafter until the policy rate reaches 3.25% in 3Q25.
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