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GS on CEEMEA Inflation

EMERGING MARKETS
  • Inflation continues to set new multi-year highs across many CEEMEA economies, surpassing GS above-consensus forecasts.
  • Although food and energy prices remain key drivers of these increases, inflationary pressures have also broadened to core goods and services.
  • For most CEEMEA economies, peak inflation remains some months away on GS forecasts and the peak will be mostly driven by strong base effects in fuel prices.
  • Given the recent decline in oil prices, GS confidence in calling for these peaks in the Autumn has risen.
  • Equally, given the broadening of price pressures to core goods and services and evidence of rising inflation expectations, it is likely to be some time before inflation returns to more ‘normal’ levels.
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