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GS on European rates

BONDS
  • Goldman Sachs argues that "given the significant upside shock to near-term inflation... we believe there is little space for the EUR front-end to rally further."
  • "Policy is on track for an H2 normalization given resilient growth and high inflation contingent on a relaxation of geopolitical risks. Overall, near-term growth uncertainty and high inflation implies flatter core curves."
  • On sovereign spreads, "Risks to issuance are likely skewed higher in the near term as European Treasuries respond to cost of living pressures from recent energy price rises... the growth downgrade priced in European macro assets so far would imply BTP-bund spreads around 10bp wider than current levels. We expect spreads around 185bp in the near-term, with risks to the upside."
  • GS also notes that "bond rallies on Russia/Ukraine geopolitics likely to be limited."
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