Free Trial

GS on NBH

HUNGARY
  • With no evidence to date that inflation dynamics are stabilising, GS expects the MNB to continue with its tightening cycle this year but, as GS confidence on the timing and the extent of the inflation peak is low, GS conviction on the terminal rate in Hungary is also low.
  • Moreover, in the near term, the MNB is likely to face significant pressure from the weaker exchange rate.
  • While the latest bout of pressures comes amid rising recession risks and deteriorating risk sentiment, relative to its CEE peers, Hungary screens as also more vulnerable to the recent shocks, owing to its weaker external balances and restricted fiscal space.
  • As long as the exchange rate remains on the back foot and continues to weaken, the MNB will be under considerable pressure to continue tightening policy in the near term.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.