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GS: Prior Slowdown In Shelter Appears Genuine With More Slowing To Come

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Goldman Sachs see core CPI at 0.44% M/M in May which nonetheless lowers the Y/Y rate 0.2pps to 5.32%.
  • It reflects a 3% increase in used car prices (auction-price strength in the spring), as well as large start-of-summer price increases for hotel and recreation categories. They also expect another gain in the car insurance category as carriers continue to offset higher repair and replacement costs, but also for a second straight decline in new car prices due to rebounding incentives.
  • Notably, they also believe the March/April slowdown in shelter categories was genuine—reflecting a waning boost from post-pandemic lease renewals—and see additional slowing in May with +0.50% for both rent and OER.
  • Headline CPI seen 0.21% M/M, on higher food but more notably lower energy prices (-3%).
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