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GS: Strong Payrolls Growth As Spring Hiring Pulled Forward

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

Goldman Sachs are towards the top end of consensus with 575k, on a rebound in dining activity, a pulling forward of spring hiring and short-term unemployment unwinding. Average hourly earnings is expected to bounce per consensus, with a modest drag from composition and calendar effects.

  • They estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 575k in March (mom sa), helped by a rebounded in dining activity along with the very tight labor market incentivizing firms to pull forward recruiting activities earlier in the spring hiring season.
  • They also note that short-term unemployment only partially reversed its Omicron spike in February, with potential further rehiring spilling into March.
  • GS see unemployment rate falling a tenth to 3.7%, reflecting a strong rise in household employment partially offset by another 0.1pp rise in labor force participation to 62.4% amid improving public health.
  • They estimate a 0.4% rise in average hourly earnings (mom sa) that boosts the year-on-year rate by four tenths to 5.5%. We continue to expect upward pressure on wages from labor shortages, but we also assume a modest drag in March from composition and calendar effects.
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