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(H4) Shallow Bounce, Bear Threat Remains

  • RES 4: 112-00 Round number resistance
  • RES 3: 111-21+ High Feb 5
  • RES 2: 110-31+ 20-day EMA
  • RES 1: 110-17+ High Feb 15
  • PRICE: 110-03+ @ 16:36 GMT Feb 20
  • SUP 1: 109-17/15 50.0% of Oct 19 - Dec 27 climb / Low Feb 16
  • SUP 2: 109-05+ Low Nov 28
  • SUP 3: 108-19+ 61.8% of the Oct 19 - Dec 27 bull phase
  • SUP 4: 108-14 Low Nov 15

Prices recovered slightly through the Tuesday London close, however the shallow bounce does little to counter the over-arching bear threat in Treasuries. The break lower last week confirmed a resumption of the downleg that started Dec 27. The 110-00 handle has been cleared and sights are on 109-17, a pierced Fibonacci retracement that could prove key at the weekly close. A clear break would open 109-05+, the Nov 28 low. Initial firm resistance is at 110-25+, the 20-day EMA.

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