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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
Following her disappointing third-placed finish in the Republican Iowa caucuses, former South Caroline Governor Nikki Haley has issued a statementindicating that she will not take part in any more GOP debates without frontrunner Donald Trump on the stage. Haley had been due to take part in a televised CNN debate alongside Florida Governor Ron DeSantis on Sunday 21 Jan ahead of the 23 Jan New Hampshire primary.
- The decision to avoid further debates without Trump could backfire. Given that she and DeSantis trail Trump significantly in nationwide polls, not taking part in a televised debate denies them both the opportunity to increase public awareness of their campaigns.
- A number of research notes have downplayed the Iowa caucus results, arguing that the bulk of delegates are yet to be decided and another candidate could emerge. While indeed a large number of delegates will be decided around 'Super Tuesday' on 5 March, the early primaries (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina) play a major role given the importance of intangible 'momentum' in campaigns. Without momentum, funding can swiftly dry up, in turn making it impossible for DeSantis or Haley to continue their runs. The prospect of an as-yet-unnamed candidate emerging in the Republican field is slim.
- However, in the Democratic field it is seen as eminently possible. Two individuals without campaigns - former First Lady Michelle Obama and California Governor Gavin Newsom - are in fourth and fifth place respectively in betting market implied probability for the presidency (see chart below). Trump leads with a 42.7% implied probability, Joe Biden second on 35.0%, Haley on 7.4%, Obama 5.6% and Newsom 3.1%.
Chart 1.Betting Market Implied Probability of Winning US Presidency, %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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