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Half-Point Mar ECB Hike Pricing Back Above 50/50, Peak Rate Rebounds 40+bp

STIR

ECB peak depo rate pricing has rebounded from this morning's low ~3.08% (58bp further hikes) to 3.50% (100bp). That's still well below the 4.18% going into last Thursday.

  • Pricing for Thursday's decision is back up to 40bp, so 60/40 implied chance of a 50bp vs a 25bp hike.
  • As MNI's Policy team reported yesterday, the ECB hopes to push ahead with its long-signalled 50bp hike this Thursday despite US bank concerns and rate repricing, eurosystem sources told MNI, though they acknowledged that a more cautious outlook will be required for the future rate path.
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