Hard Line On Ukraine Grain Comes As Polls Show Tight Election Race

The hard line taken by the Polish gov't in relation to the import of Ukrainian grain, which has resulted in major protests from farmers that say they are being undercut in price, comes as the gov't of PM Mateusz Morawiecki seeks to build support ahead of this year's legislative election. The governing national conservative Law and Justice (PiS) is seeking a third consecutive term in office with the election seen as likely taking place in October.

• Opinion polling shows the United Right, in which PiS sits, holding first place nationwide, but with support well below the 43.6% of the vote secured in the 2019 election. An average of polling in April so far has the United Right on 35%.
• It remains unclear whether the main opposition groups/parties (big-tent pro-EU Civic Coalition, centrist Poland 2050, The Left, agrarian Polish Coalition) will be able to put aside enmities and run as a united force, which would give them the best chance of securing a majority.
• With a 5% electoral threshold for single parties, rising to 8% for alliances, securing a broad pre-election alliance could prove crucial for those opposition groups such as the Polish Coalition, Left, and Poland 2050 whose support sits around that level. In April the Polish Coalition averaged 5.8% support, Poland 2050 8.0% and The Left 9.6%.

Source: IBRiS, Social Changes, Estymator, United Surveys, PGB Opinium, IPSOS, Kantar Public, IBSP, CBOS, MNI