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Harris Continues To Strengthen In Swing State Polling

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Vice President Kamala Harris’s presidential campaign received another polling boost with a New York Times/Siena College survey showing Harris leading former President Donald Trump 50-46% in the three critical Rust Belt states - Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The Siena College poll is notable as it was a previous poll from the organisation that accelerated anxiety over President Biden’s electability.

  • Nate Cohen at NYT notes: “If there were any doubt whether Kamala Harris has transformed this year’s presidential election, this [survey] put it to rest.”
  • Bloomberg notes on the survey: “Harris leads [Trump] by 53% to 43% among likely suburban voters, considered a key demographic in the race. In an NYT-Siena poll... ending May 9, President Joe Biden and Trump were in a statistical dead heat among that group.”
  • A separate pollof likely Nevada voters found Harris with a nearly 6-percentage-point lead over Trump — the largest lead for a Democrat in any presidential poll of Nevadans this cycle, according to the Nevada Independent.
  • The Nevada Independent notes: “Harris’ lead in this poll may be an outlier, but it mimics Biden’s position at this point in the cycle in 2020 when FiveThirtyEight polling averages showed he led in Nevada by about 6 percentage points. Biden ultimately won the state by about 2.4 percentage points.”
  • ElectionBettingOdds shows Harris has slightly extended her lead on betting markets, leading Trump 52.7% to 45%.
  • Nate Silver's forecast model shows Harris with a similar 53.4%-46.1% lead and a 66.4% implied probability of winning the popular vote.
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Vice President Kamala Harris’s presidential campaign received another polling boost with a New York Times/Siena College survey showing Harris leading former President Donald Trump 50-46% in the three critical Rust Belt states - Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The Siena College poll is notable as it was a previous poll from the organisation that accelerated anxiety over President Biden’s electability.

  • Nate Cohen at NYT notes: “If there were any doubt whether Kamala Harris has transformed this year’s presidential election, this [survey] put it to rest.”
  • Bloomberg notes on the survey: “Harris leads [Trump] by 53% to 43% among likely suburban voters, considered a key demographic in the race. In an NYT-Siena poll... ending May 9, President Joe Biden and Trump were in a statistical dead heat among that group.”
  • A separate pollof likely Nevada voters found Harris with a nearly 6-percentage-point lead over Trump — the largest lead for a Democrat in any presidential poll of Nevadans this cycle, according to the Nevada Independent.
  • The Nevada Independent notes: “Harris’ lead in this poll may be an outlier, but it mimics Biden’s position at this point in the cycle in 2020 when FiveThirtyEight polling averages showed he led in Nevada by about 6 percentage points. Biden ultimately won the state by about 2.4 percentage points.”
  • ElectionBettingOdds shows Harris has slightly extended her lead on betting markets, leading Trump 52.7% to 45%.
  • Nate Silver's forecast model shows Harris with a similar 53.4%-46.1% lead and a 66.4% implied probability of winning the popular vote.