Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
The latest opinion polling both at the national level and in crucial swing states appears to paint an increasingly positive picture for Vice President and likely Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris. An Economist/YouGov poll released 31 July shows Harris leading Republican nominee former President Donald Trump by 2%.
- It must be noted that, firstly, the significant amount of time between now and the November election means notable shifts in polling are possible. Secondly, almost all national and swing state polls are putting results within the margin of error, making them statistical dead-heats.
- Economst/YouGov 27-30 July: Harris: 46% (+5), Trump: 44% (=), RFK Jr.: 3% (-2). Chgs w. 21-23 July. 1,430 RV.
- In the July 13-16 poll, prior to Biden's withdrawal, Trump led Harris 44% to 39%, a 5% advantage. By the 21-23 July poll this had fallen to 3%, with Trump ahead at that point 44% to 41%.
- In Morning Consult's swing-state tracking polls for Bloomberg, Harris has taken a slender lead in Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, drawn level in Georgia, and taken a sizeable lead in Michigan (the only poll outside MoE).
- Harris is running on notable political momentum at present, with seemingly widespread relief at Biden's withdrawal spurring her campaign. Her upcoming VP pick (their first joint appearance set for 6 August) could maintain this momentum in the short term.
- However, it remains to be seen whether it will last as the Trump campaign reorients its sights away from Biden and towards Harris and her political record.
Source: Bloomberg, Morning Consult. Fieldwork: 24-28 July. N.b. Shading on either side of line indicates margin of error.
Chart 2. Prospective Electoral College Map Using Outcomes from BBG/Morning Consult Poll
Source: 270towin, Bloomberg/Morning Consult, MNI. N.b. Shade indicates strength of candidate in each state. Dark-safe, mid-likely, light-lean, beige-tossup.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.