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Has Inflation Reached Its Peak?

POLAND
  • Yesterday, economic data showed that Preliminary May CPI rose to 4.8% (as expected), up from 4.3% the previous month and confirming that the inflationary pressures continue to increase.
  • Hence, participants have been speculating that the NBP will have to make an early move, which has been one of the major factors behind PLN strength in the past two months.
  • In an TV interview yesterday, NBP policymaker Lukasz Hardt mentioned that he expects Polish inflation to remain elevated in 2022 and does not see inflation falling below the 3.5% NBP upper tolerance band this year. As a result, he thinks that the MPC should consider a 15bps hike in June to curb the inflationary pressures.
  • On the other hand, government spokesperson Piotr Muller told on public radio earlier this morning that CPI inflation may be elevated for a few months, but remains under control; he added that low borrowing costs are also seen as beneficial during periods of crisis.
  • There are no important economic data coming out today.

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