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Hawkish OCR Track Puts NZD Above Most Others in G10

FOREX
  • G10 currencies trade largely subdued early Wednesday, with EUR/USD strength over Asia-Pac hours resulting in a 1.0348 print before prices faded across Europe. PMI data across Europe has been mixed, with French data weaker, but German figures coming out ahead of forecast.
  • Equities continue to provide a generally risk-on backdrop, with the e-mini S&P and EuroStoxx future both holding inside short-term uptrend. JPY is offered, with modest European hours USD strength pressing USD/JPY against 141.50 resistance.
  • NZD is among the strongest performers in G10, with NZD/USD approaching clustered resistance layered between 0.6200 - 0.6206 following the RBNZ decision. The bank raised rates by 75bps, alongside expectations, and hiked the OCR track markedly, putting the new peak rate at approximately 5.50% for next year - implied a further 125bps of rate hikes this cycle.
  • NOK, SEK and NZD are the firmest in G10, while JPY and CAD are at the bottom of the pile.
  • Focus turns to the raft of US data, with releases clustered to the Wednesday session to accommodate for Thursday's Thanksgiving holiday. Prelim October durable goods data, weekly jobless claims, new home sales and the prelim November PMI cross.
  • Final Michigan sentiment data will be watched for any markdown for inflation expectations, with the survey data now including the lower-than-expected October CPI release. Fed minutes also cross, with markets watching for any indications of a step-down in the pace of rate rises at the December meeting.
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