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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
SOUTH KOREA
Earlier data showed headline consumer confidence dipped further in May to 98.4 (from 100.7 in April). This is back to around October 2023 levels and for the first time since December last year, pessimists outweigh optimists in terms of the headline reading. More broadly, sentiment is within ranges and while it isn't suggesting further upside in GDP growth, it also isn't suggesting a sharp deceleration either, see the first chart below.
- Nevertheless, the result likely underscores the need for easier policy settings from a domestic standpoint. They may not be forthcoming in the near term though with the BoK widely expected to stay on hold this Thursday.
- Most of the sub-indices dipped in relation to the domestic economy and spending intentions. Consumers also became more pessimistic around the chance of rate cuts from the BoK.
Fig 1: South Korea CSI Headline Versus GDP Y/Y
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
- Also noteworthy was the pick up in inflation expectations. This rose to 3.2% from 3.1% last month. While only a marginal increase, expected inflation hasn't been able to break sub 3% on the downside.
- This index and headline CPI show somewhat of a wedge, see the second chart below. At the margin this adds to the on hold case for the BoK at this week's policy meeting.
Fig 2: South Korea CPI Y/Y & Consumer Inflation Expectations
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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