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Headline Inflation Expected to Moderate to +4.3% Y/Y in January

HUNGARY
As per the median estimate of the Bloomberg survey of analysts, Hungary’s headline inflation figure likely fell from +5.5% y/y in December to +4.3% in January. Data will be released tomorrow morning at 07:30GMT/08:30 local time. The NBH meet next on Feb 27.
  • Goldman Sachs expect headline CPI to fall to +4.1% y/y, with the sharp decline driven by large base effects, offset by higher sequential fuel prices. They note that January is an unusually important month for price setting and the uncertainty around this release is large. They think there are downside risks.
  • Like the NBH, Goldman Sachs expect headline inflation to continue to move closer to the 3% target in the coming months. With weak inflation prints and sluggish growth, GS think the ‘binding constraint’ on the central bank’s pace of rate reduction continues to be the HUF. However, now that an agreement on Ukraine aid has been reached and the HUF has reappreciated against the Euro, GS think the NBH will speed up its cutting cycle this month.
  • UniCredit expect inflation to be around 4% this month, while they also see a possibility that inflation may return to the central bank's target range for the first time in a long time. There are chances for both upside and downside surprises, they note.
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