Headline Sub-3% For First Time Since Aug 2021

Eurozone flash inflation for October printed in line with MNI's nowcast at an unrounded +2.91% (vs +3.1% cons; +4.34% prior), the first time the headline has been below 3% since August 2021. The monthly print was +0.10% (vs +0.2% cons; +0.32% prior). Core (ex-energy/food) was +4.19% (vs +4.2% cons; +4.52% prior) and +0.24% M/M (vs +0.22% prior).

• Disinflation was seen in all major sub-components, with energy base effects playing a large role in pulling down the headline as expected.
• The core reading - coming in line with the 4.2% estimate coming into the week - was probably higher than expectations given national-level category data, making this release modestly hawkish overall given what would have been updated expectations.
• Services disinflation was moderate on a Y/Y level, at +4.59% Y/Y vs +4.72% prior but encouragingly -0.03% M/M. Last month, services were dragged down by German transport ticket effects, so the ECB will be encouraged to see no resurgence in sequential services inflation in October. We await the ECB's seasonally-adjusted series due out later today for a better indication of sequential momentum.
• At a country level, the October Y/Y prints were lower in 17/20 countries. Only Estonia, Greece and Spain saw increases vs September - and Spain's was still softer than expected. On a monthly level, 7 countries saw M/M deflation, including Germany and Portugal.