Henry Hub Edges Higher with Support from Warm US Temperatures

US Henry Hub front month is edging higher today to bring levels slightly higher on the week with warm weather across much of the US and lower domestic production this month balanced against healthy storage levels and curtailed LNG exports.

• US Natgas JUL 23 up 0.7% at 2.63$/mmbtu
• The latest EIA weekly US gas inventories for the week ending 16 June released yesterday showed a larger than expected build of +95bcf compared the 5-year average for this time of year of +76bcf. Total US inventories are still above the five year average at 2,729bcf compared to the average of 2,340bcf.
• The latest US weather forecast has again turned slightly warmer with above normal temperatures now expected on the west coast as well as on the Gulf coast and in central regions in the 6-10 day period. Temperatures on the east coast are holding at or slightly below normal. Domestic demand is just above normal at 66.4bcf/d today according to Bloomberg.
• Lower 48 dry gas production has recovered slightly this week back up to 99.7bcf/d today after falling as low as 97.5bcf/d on 16 June according to Bloomberg.
• Delivery flows to the US LNG export terminals are down to 10.7bcf/d with a further drop in supply to Sabine Pass LNG amid maintenance.
• Export flows to Mexico are up at a high of 7.4bcf/d today compared to around 5.5bcf/d at the start of the year.