Henry Hub Edges Lower on Mixed US Weather Forecast

US natural gas holds steady with a mixed outlook in the two week weather forecast. Front month Henry Hub has eased back from a high of around 2.36$/mmbtu last week as a warm weather forecast across the east coast has receded to reduce the expected cooling demand.

• US Natgas JUL 23 down -0.7% at 2.24$/mmbtu
• The risk of a recession in the US remains a downside risk for gas demand while high storage is also limiting upside moves as concerns surround the rate of production growth in the second half of this year.
• Above normal temperatures are still expected in the Gulf Coast and central regions in the 6-14 day period however at or below normal temperatures are expected on the east and west coasts. Domestic demand is holding steady just above average at 66.9bcf/d according to Bloomberg compared to the seasonal normal of 63.0bcf/d.
• Domestic production has increased over the weekend back up to 100.8bcf/d after dipping down as low as 99.1bcf/d mid last week.
• Delivery flows to the US LNG export terminals are still around 11.7bcf/d with maintenance at Sabine Pass maintenance reducing pipeline supply by about 1.7bcf/d compared to levels seen during May.
• Export flows to Mexico are today estimated at 6.0bcf/d.