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Henry Hub Falls to Lowest Since June on Warm Weather Forecast

NATGAS

Henry Hub front month falls to the lowest since 15 Jun driven by the forecast for mild weather in the US over the coming couple of weeks. Healthy supplies, high storage and muted demand are limiting upside pressure on winter prices.

    • US Natgas JAN 24 down -7.7% at 2.38$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas JUN 24 down -5.7% at 2.42$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas DEC 24 down -3.5% at 3.45$/mmbtu
  • The March-April spread has fallen back to parity from nearly 0.35$/mmbtu in August suggesting the possibility of ample supplies at the end of the winter season. The total US inventories remain well above season normal levels at 3,719bcf compared to the average of 3,509bcf.
  • Temperatures are forecast to remain mostly above normal in the coming two weeks but with closer to normal expected on the US Gulf Coast according to NOAA. Lower 48 natural gas demand is today estimated just above normal at 95.9bcf/d according to Bloomberg.
  • Domestic natural gas production is today estimated at 106.0bcf/d according to Bloomberg with data showing a record 106.55bcf/d on Dec 8 last week.
  • Demand from US LNG export terminals is strong with feedgas supplies at 14.8bcf/d according to Bloomberg after reaching a record high of 15.1bcf/d yesterday.
  • Export flows to Mexico are today at 5.8bcf/d according to Bloomberg.
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