Henry Hub Holds in Range as Cooler Weather Offsets Curtailed LNG Flows

Henry Hub front month is holding with a $1.643/mmbtu to $1.774/mmbtu range in the last week with a cooler weather forecast set against curtailed LNG feedgas flows.

• US Natgas APR 24 up 1.6% at 1.73$/mmbtu
• US Natgas SEP 24 up 0.8% at 2.54$/mmbtu
• US Natgas MAR 25 up 0.5% at 3.26$/mmbtu
• Lower 48 natural gas demand is almost unchanged on the day at 85.4bcf/d compared to levels down as low as 69.4bcf/d last week. The NOAA 6-10 day forecast shows a split with below normal temperatures in the west but warm weather in the east. The cooler weather is forecast to spread further eastwards during the 8-14 day period.
• Total feedgas flows to US LNG export terminals are today up slightly to 13.6bcf/d according to Bloomberg but remain below normal. Freeport LNG supply is up to 0.98bcf/d but still low compared to full capacity of over 2bcf/d. Bloomberg previously reported on March 15 that Freeport was restarting Train 3 and repairs were due to take place on the other two trains on a rolling basis through April.
• US domestic natural gas production was yesterday estimated up to 101.1bcf/d according to Bloomberg compared to around 100bcf/d this time last year. US shale gas output is expected to decline by 167mmcf/d on the month to 100.452bcf/d in April, according to the EIA Drilling Productivity Report released yesterday.
• Export flows to Mexico are today at 5.9bcf/d according to Bloomberg.