Henry Hub Lowest Since 2020 Amid Strong Supply and Muted Demand

Henry Hub front month has extended the decline from yesterday to the lowest since Sep 2020 after the smaller than normal storage draw yesterday and with mild weather and steady production.

• US Natgas MAR 24 down -3.5% at 1.85$/mmbtu
• US Natgas AUG 24 down -1.8% at 2.41$/mmbtu
• US Natgas FEB 25 down -0.7% at 3.53$/mmbtu
• The EIA weekly gas inventories for the week ending Feb 2 showed a smaller than normal draw of -75bcf compared to the expectation for a draw of -75bcf and the seasonal normal draw of -201bcf. Total stocks are at 2,584bcf compared to the previous five year average of 2,345cf.
• Net gas flows to US LNG export terminals have today recovered to 14.0 bcf/d according to Bloomberg but feedgas is still curtailed with Freeport about 0.6bcf/d below normal and about 0.25bcf/d below.
• Domestic natural gas demand is down again to remain below normal at 83.1bcf/d today. Temperatures to remain mild in the coming week to weigh on demand for heating fuel. The 6-14 day period shows a mixed picture with cooler weather expected after mid month but with potentially slightly warmer again towards the end of the two week period.
• US lower 48 gas production is today down slightly at 104.8bcf/d according to Bloomberg after reaching 105.4bcf/d on Feb 7 and just below the record high from in December.
• Export flow to Mexico is today at 6.17bcf/d today.