Henry Hub Strength Supported by Warm Weather

US Henry Hub front month is holding onto gains seen so far this month with warm weather expected to boost cooling demand although LNG exports are still reduced amid terminal maintenance.

• US Natgas JUL 23 up 0.7% at 2.75$/mmbtu
• The US NOAA 6-14 day weather forecast is showing above normal temperatures for much of the US especially in the south and in the west coast regions. Domestic demand is the highest since early May up to 69.1bcf/d today according to Bloomberg.
• Lower 48 dry gas production is gradually recovering from the low levels seen in mid June up to 99.9bcf/d today.
• Delivery flows to the US LNG export terminals are up slightly from last week to 11.5bcf/d with a small recovery in supply to Sabine Pass LNG after seeing a greater volume offline late last week. The planned Sabine Pass outage has so far lasted about 24 days compared to an outage of 22 days in summer 2021 and 33 days in 2022.
• Export flows to Mexico have dipped slightly from last week but are still high at 6.9bcf/d today.