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Henry Hub Upside Next Year Limited by Supply Overhang from 2023: JPM

NATGAS

US Henry Hub is forecast at 3.34$/mmbtu in 2024 with upside risk limited by an overhang of supply from 2023 according to JP Morgan. The forecast for 2025 is 4.75$/mmbtu amid a fall in global prices and tighter US balances.

  • A tighter balance in US Southeast will add to price support due to increased capacity at Plaquemines and Golden Pass LNG export terminals.
  • Natural gas markets to remain volatile despite increasing supply with US pipeline constraints, limiting production outside of the Haynesville.
  • The Henry Hub and TTF price arb will remain extremely wide at an average of 38.75€/MWh in 2024. The longer term spread strength may be limited by a fall in global gas prices in 2025 amid an increase in global LNG supply from the US.

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